Domenic Brasacchio: “Shopping the tickets” – Brands are digging themselves into a discount hole

By Domenic Brasacchio, Co-Founder and Managing Director, DPR&Co Melbourne.

Every discount is a short-term win and a long-term liability.

As Australian retailers gear up for another Black Friday bonanza, a stark warning is emerging from consumer behaviour data: the relentless pursuit of performance-driven sales is systematically destroying long-term brand value in what marketing experts are calling “shopping the tickets”. This practice is where consumers reflexively defer major purchases until discount events.

The numbers are damning. For the first time since tracking began, Australian retailers expect to generate 50% of their critical holiday revenue through just three events: Click Frenzy, Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Meanwhile, consumer loyalty has collapsed, with 42% of Australians under 35 now willing to switch brands purely for a better deal.

We’ve trained an entire generation of consumers to never pay full price. The question now isn’t whether Black Friday works, it’s whether brands and retailers can survive their own success at it.

The discount trap is in full effect with recent data revealing the extent of Australian consumer discount dependency:

·       Retail behaviour has inverted: Australians now consistently spend more in November than December, with $900 million more spent online during November 2023 compared to the traditional peak shopping month

·       Consumer expectations have reset: Shoppers now expect 16-25% off items under $50, 26-40% off mid-range products, and over 41% off items above $200

·       Average discounts hit 28% during Black Friday 2024, while research shows consumers are only willing to pay 76% of full price for women’s wear on average – meaning the entry point for purchases is permanently 24% off

The psychological conditioning is complete. Consumers now research purchases weeks in advance, deliberately deferring spending until discount events create what researchers call “purchase-worthy” moments. The result? Brands have become price-takers in a market they created.

What’s fuelling this? No surprises here but the rise of performance marketing has accelerated this race to the bottom. As brands chase immediate ROI and quarterly targets, they’ve systematically underinvested in the brand equity that insulates them, at least in part, from price competition.

Every discount is a short-term win and a long-term liability and you’re attracting price-driven customers who will never become loyal, while simultaneously training your best customers to stop paying full price.

The data is unequivocal, frequent discounting attracts consumers unlikely to become long-term loyal customers, negatively impacts existing loyal customers who previously paid full price and creates a cycle of discount dependency that’s nearly impossible to break. The performance marketing paradox is real.

As Australia enters peak discounting season, forward-thinking brands are adopting three critical strategies:

1. Redefine value beyond price. With 68% of Australian consumers saying they’ll pay full price for exactly what they want, smart brands are investing in communicating authentic stories, craftsmanship and unique attributes. Research shows persistently communicating brand value and product quality buffers the negative impact of discounts on brand perception.

2. Strategic, not reflexive. Discounting analysis reveals that a 10% discount can drive the same sales volume as a 25% discount when executed strategically. Limiting discount frequency and duration maintains exclusivity while data-driven personalisation creates targeted offers that don’t train entire markets to wait for sales.

3. Invest in experience and community. Australian spending on experiences is set to leap 30% this holiday period while gift spending increases just 4.2%. Brands building experiential elements – exceptional service, engaging content, community events – create equity that transcends transactional relationships.

The brands that will still be here in ten years aren’t the ones winning Black Friday 2025. They’re the ones who have the courage to play a different game.